Indicators of the Bottom of the Commercial Real Estate Market

As a commercial real estate broker and investor, I am often asked about the arrival of the low-point of the stressed, distressed, value-add and opportunity property market. "When will we be at the bottom? Are we there yet? Is it this year? Will it be next year? Will the pending CMBS mess push property values lower? When should I get in?" are just a few examples of questions I am fielding. Funny thing is, I don't think we ever actually see the bottom before it passes us by.

This is the first "Chief Brief".
When looking at the demand in the business of commercial real estate, I think there are a variety of factors to consider. They are:

Leased space demand.
Commercial mortgage demand.
Commercial real estate services demand.
Investment property demand.