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Oct 28
2009

Stop throwing money at the problem - Innovate!

Posted by: Gunnar Branson

Tagged in: Untagged 

Gunnar Branson

Despite and perhaps even because of the lack of capital and the problems lurking in everyone's portfolio, this may be a terrific time to build your best years in real estate.

One of the more exciting movies in 1978 was a film about Vietnam called "The Deer Hunter" directed by Michael Cimino.  It won five Academy awards that year, including best picture and best director.  Vincent Canby of the New York Times wrote:

"Michael Cimino's "The Deer Hunter" is a big, awkward, crazily ambitious, sometimes breathtaking motion picture that comes as close to being a popular epic as any movie about this country since "the Godfather."'
It seemed that this was the first time that a popular, mainstream Hollywood movie captured the national anguish of the Vietnam War in a way that many people could relate to and understand. Although Mr. Cimino had directed a successful film before,"Thunderbolt and Lightfoot", this was his first film that made everyone take notice.  It was a breakthrough for American popular culture as well as for Mr. Cimino.
The film cost about $15 million to make and grossed over $50 million. 
In 1980, Mr. Cimino's next film was released, Heaven's Gate. It was a breakthrough of another kind - one that almost destroyed his career as well as United Artists.  Vincent Canby's review from the New York Times included the quote:
"...an unqualified disaster..."
The film cost about $40 million to make and grossed less than $3.5 million.
Although there are many reasons why one film was successful and the other was not, (most of which I am not qualified to comment on), there is something instructive here for innovation:
New projects may not always do well when too much money is thrown at them.  
Although an investment is required - paradoxically, too muchmoney can have a stifling effect. Innovation and problem solving on a movie set (or with a product or a company) is difficult and risky. When there is ample money involved, the tendency is not to risk it. One can always buy a solution if you have plenty of money to spare. Conversely, when money is scarce and resources hard to find, it is easier to take chances, to experiment and to innovate. 
Interestingly, there is a footnote to "Heaven's Gate".  Even though the initial release was not very successful, it spawned innovation anyway.  Jerry Harvey of the Z Channel (a cable pay TV channel) released a revised "Director's Cut" of the film that was reasonably successful with their subscribers as well as on VHS and DVD releases.  It may have been one of the first "Director's Cut" releases - and since then, "Director's Cut" VHS and DVD releases have enjoyed brisk sales for other notable films.  "Heaven's Gate, the Director's Cut" was a video marketing innovation.
My guess is that Mr. Harvey felt there wasn't that much money at stake to try something new with a movie that wasn't successful.  The risk was relatively low and the reward was high enough to make it worth while.
Innovation, whether it is in movies, in science, or in business, is a difficult, risky, dirty and often painful process.  If a situation is too easy - it might not be worth the trouble to innovate.  Most of the big innovations of the computer age seemed to have started in garages.  Some of the best ideas inside companies come from those pilot projects that few people even know about.  The most effective marketing can come from companies short on cash but long on need to reach out to new customers.
Here's a simple example that I came across recently that shows how a lack of money can encourage innovation:
Recently, my dentist of the last dozen years, (Dr. Shawn Post) handed me a stack of business cards.  Business in the current recession is challenging, as many patients are putting off their regular visits in order to save money.  He is the best dentist I have ever worked with and most of his other clients are as fiercely loyal as I am.  Over the years, I have referred a number of friends and associates to his care.
Like most small medical practices, he has limited resources for marketing his services, and no sales force to help find new clients.  Instead he decided to outsource his sales and marketing to his clients.  
On the back of each business card is a $50 gift certificate.  Any new client who brings the card in for a dental visit, will get $50 off.  Plus, anyone who gives this card to that new client will also get $50 off.  My dentist is paying his clients $50 for each new client they bring in!
The simplicity as well as the sophistication of this tactic is striking.  It is measurable, it leverages the fierce loyalty of his clients, and it undoubtedly will lead to new business.  All of this for the up-front cost of a box of business cards.
Of course, this kind of tactic and other inexpensive ideas wouldn't work for a real estate company...or would it?
Now that resources are tight and the need for new business more imperative than ever, all the right conditions are in place.  No more throwing money at a problem - now it's time to innovate.

 

Oct 07
2009

No One Wants to Innovate - They Have to.

Posted by: Gunnar Branson

Tagged in: Untagged 

Gunnar Branson


Why would anyone want to innovate?

Despite the excitement of finding something new, despite the potential success of a breakthrough concept, despite the honor history affords to innovators like Thomas Edison, Steve Wozniak, Orville and Wilbur Wright, Madame Curie, Galileo, Henry Ford and many others, innovation remains a high-risk, difficult and painful process.  Innovators routinely face mistakes, dashed hopes, financial stress, and constant uncertainty.  It’s hard, painful, unpredictable, and sometimes even embarrassing. Innovations that are ahead of their time have a tendency to fail. Innovations that are too late are usually eclipsed by others. Recent history is filled with expensive and publicly known failures such as theApple Newton, the Sony Betamax and Crystal Pepsi. Most organizations have any number of failed new projects and initiatives that no one really wants to talk about.

Sep 25
2009

Fear: Good or Bad for Innovation? Maybe Both?

Posted by: Gunnar Branson

Tagged in: Untagged 

Gunnar Branson

There’s quite a bit of fear in Commercial Real Estate. But that can be seen either as an advantage or a disadvantage for innovation. In some ways, it’s both.

Fear pushes companies to try new ideas and new approaches. As one leader of a small business recently told me, “We would be out of business three years ago if we hadn’t innovated.” Most innovators I talk with list fear as a source of strength. If you are losing customers, if money is scarce, and there is no other choice; you have to innovate.

At the same time, more than lack of capital, lack of good ideas, or lack of economic imperative; fear of change can be the most stubborn impediment to innovation.

Sep 17
2009

Want to innovate? Start laughing.

Posted by: Gunnar Branson

Tagged in: Untagged 

Gunnar Branson

If there was ever a time for innovation in commercial real estate, that time is now.  With commercial property values down by 30% to 50%, a capital markets system on life-support and half a trillion dollars of commercial mortgages coming due over the next two years, the immediate horizon looks pretty bleak.  Perhaps we should all start laughing.

Laughter seems to be closely linked to innovation. When teams are solving problems, when individuals are able to overcome their fears and create solutions – more often than not, they are laughing. Breakthroughs and laughter often seem to go hand-in-hand. And when no one is laughing - innovation seems to slow down as well.

Anyone that was involved in the early days of RTC in the nineties remembers - not only how much work was involved - but how much fun we had as we pulled all those all-nighters dealing with the toxic assets of the day. We were all at the front line of redefining value in the commercial real estate marketplace - and despite the fear, the hardship, and the uncertainty we were all having a good time. 

When Brian Marshall of the Alliance for Strategic Alliance ran a technology company in the '90's, his engineers, “worked 12, 16, 18 hours a day, sleeping in their offices…and they were high-fiving each other, telling jokes, having a good time. We just gave them a deadline, near impossible objectives, some t-shirts, beer on Friday nights and an unlimited amount of free soda pop – and they were in heaven.”


Aug 12
2009

Hacking Commercial Real Estate

Posted by: Gunnar Branson

Tagged in: Sustainability , Innovation , Hacking

Gunnar Branson

 Even after the credit markets come back, commercial real estate will be engaged in some exciting and fundamental transformation. A comment left on my real estate blog at The Real Corner elicited two interesting questions from Mark Waligora of Pinetree Commercial. He asked,

"What are the trends that we can anticipate and take advantage of as stakeholders (principals, brokers, lenders, tenants) during this transformative cycle? Where are the hackers in our industry?"
As I attempted to answer the questions, I decided to focus on two key trends that help me to understand what is happening and what may happen in the future. There are, of course, many macro trends affecting this sector; demographic trends, changes in technology, economic growth, debt and equity, legal structures and a new regulatory environment are all very important. But I believe that these two sometimes overlooked trends have a tremendous amount of potential to transform commercial real estate. They are:
  1. Office and Retail need less space per person.
  2. Sustainability and Energy Use issues will not go away.