It’s always interesting to analyze forecasts about future spreads and yields. The CMBS industry’s weekly newsletter, Commercial Mortgage Alert publishes predictions on future CMBS spreads every January & July. I have always liked to look at them, not because anyone has the ability to predict the future, but because the predictions often provide interesting insights into what the market participants are thinking.

The table below is the latest set of forecasts published. It shows predictions from ten industry participants on where recent vintage (i.e. 2006 to 2008 deals) CMBS spreads will be six months later. Some observations follow.