Real Invest 2.0 Blog

In the Real Invest 2.0 blogs you'll find discussions on personal experiences, real estate, finance, innovation and a bit of humor. Share your comments freely with the Real Invest bloggers and if you feel the urge to start your own blog please let us know.
Sep 27
2009

Comments from Dealmakers: Equity Outlook

Posted by: Todd Phillips

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Todd Phillips

This is the fifth of six installments of my notes and comments from Institutional Real Estate, Inc.’s Dealmakers Summit (Sept. 14 – 16, 2009).  This section regards the state of commercial real estate equity.  See my blog at ToddAPhillips.blogspot.com for the other installments.

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY

Earlier in the year, Institutions’ investment allocations were out-of-whack.  A quickly falling stock market made real estate appear over-allocated.  Real estate values have subsequently dropped and equities have recovered.  It appears as though allocations have been repaired and may now be in line for institutions to start investing in real estate again.  Given that even the least savvy investors can infer that bond values will drop in the near to mid future (hard for treasuries to go below zero), then there would seem to be a case for allocating even more to real estate. 

Sep 25
2009

Fear: Good or Bad for Innovation? Maybe Both?

Posted by: Gunnar Branson

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Gunnar Branson

There’s quite a bit of fear in Commercial Real Estate. But that can be seen either as an advantage or a disadvantage for innovation. In some ways, it’s both.

Fear pushes companies to try new ideas and new approaches. As one leader of a small business recently told me, “We would be out of business three years ago if we hadn’t innovated.” Most innovators I talk with list fear as a source of strength. If you are losing customers, if money is scarce, and there is no other choice; you have to innovate.

At the same time, more than lack of capital, lack of good ideas, or lack of economic imperative; fear of change can be the most stubborn impediment to innovation.

Sep 23
2009

Comments from Dealmakers: Deal Flow

Posted by: Todd Phillips

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Todd Phillips

This is the third of six installments of my notes and comments from Institutional Real Estate, Inc.’s Dealmakers Summit (Sept. 14 – 16, 2009).  This section regards the state of ‘deal flow’ for commercial real estate.

DEAL FLOW

It is no secret that deal flow is off more than any real estate professional would like.  Many in the real estate industry are highly dependent on deal flow for their livelihood.  We should not be shunned for this, in a functioning system we need dealmakers, we are the fabric of the system.  I don’t know if most professionals have come to grips with just how much deal flow is off, however.  Many experts at the conference calculated that deal flow is off 90% or more; some are saying 95%. Ouch.

Sep 21
2009

Notes from Dealmakers Summit

Posted by: Todd Phillips

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Todd Phillips

Last week I spent three days in La Jolla, CA at Institutional Real Estate, Inc.’s Dealmakers Summit.  I was impressed by the number of very high-level speakers and I think everyone can benefit from what they said.  Believing such, I am going to attempt to regurgitate some of what I heard along with my own comments and opinions. 

I will post my comments in the following segments: (1) General Economic Outlook, (2) State of Real Estate and Outlook, (3) Deal Flow, (4) Debt Outlook, (5) Equity Outlook, and (6) Recommendations on What To Do Next.

Economic Outlook

Sep 17
2009

Want to innovate? Start laughing.

Posted by: Gunnar Branson

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Gunnar Branson

If there was ever a time for innovation in commercial real estate, that time is now.  With commercial property values down by 30% to 50%, a capital markets system on life-support and half a trillion dollars of commercial mortgages coming due over the next two years, the immediate horizon looks pretty bleak.  Perhaps we should all start laughing.

Laughter seems to be closely linked to innovation. When teams are solving problems, when individuals are able to overcome their fears and create solutions – more often than not, they are laughing. Breakthroughs and laughter often seem to go hand-in-hand. And when no one is laughing - innovation seems to slow down as well.

Anyone that was involved in the early days of RTC in the nineties remembers - not only how much work was involved - but how much fun we had as we pulled all those all-nighters dealing with the toxic assets of the day. We were all at the front line of redefining value in the commercial real estate marketplace - and despite the fear, the hardship, and the uncertainty we were all having a good time. 

When Brian Marshall of the Alliance for Strategic Alliance ran a technology company in the '90's, his engineers, “worked 12, 16, 18 hours a day, sleeping in their offices…and they were high-fiving each other, telling jokes, having a good time. We just gave them a deadline, near impossible objectives, some t-shirts, beer on Friday nights and an unlimited amount of free soda pop – and they were in heaven.”


Sep 08
2009

Rael Estate Market is Good

Posted by: Pradeep Bali

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Pradeep Bali

There are great deals in Fresno CA for investors both in Residental/ Commercial market

Sep 08
2009

LTNV: Loan-to-no-Value

Posted by: Michael Katz

Michael Katz

We all bore witness to the financial meltdown.  We all know it was caused by sub-prime mortgages and greedy financial engineering and that it was exacerbated by a flailing auto industry, a deregulated, price-gauging credit card industry, and a general population who had to learn not to live beyond their means the hard way.  We have all suffered as a result.  Yet, the one endearing doctrine of value throughout the history of this country has been education.  The value of a good education, our parents told us, was the foundation for a successful professional life.  Well, call me a pessimist, but the more I think about it, education is what is going to cause this country’s next big economic disaster.  How so?  Let’s take a look….

It used to be that higher education was luxury of the wealthy, and was evidenced by the well less than a quarter of the population attending and graduating from four year colleges.  Now, it seems as though it has become a rite of passage.  Of course, with the burgeoning rise in enrollment and graduation from college, so have the costs to attend.  I graduated NYU in 2004, and it cost $40,000 per year to attend.  The average cost just a short 5 years later? $60,000!  That’s a fifty percent rise within five years.  While NYU is one of the most expensive universities to attend, it is a perfect poster child for the rising costs associated with attending college.

Somehow, universities have been able to convince most Americans that higher education is not only necessary to land a job today, but that the investment is also a worthwhile one.  I would agree that higher education is generally a prerequisite to landing a good starting job, but beyond that, most of a person’s career depends more on how successful they are in that first role, and in roles at future positions, than where they went to school.  After all, most HR departments check with former employers to gauge a candidate’s merits, rather than checking with the university registar’s office to make sure they did indeed graduated cum laude.

Sep 08
2009

TALF Update

Posted by: Todd Phillips

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Todd Phillips

SNL reporting several lenders aggressively quoting loans for creation of TALF-backed CMBS pools.

This is what we have been waiting for!
http://www.snl.com/Interactivex/article.aspx?CdId=A-10011755-14387